An Update on That Map

I've always felt that this election could go one of three ways, ranked from high probability to low: Obama wins the election narrowly, Obama wins huge, or McCain wins the election narrowly.

All evidence suggests that voter turnout will be huge this year. I think something is happening, the question is...what? Could it be an Obama surge? Could it be an anti-Obama countersurge? My hunch is it's both.

The Washington Post gives us a clue. The polls are clearly suggesting an Obama blowout. I'm not sure I believe it, just yet. But, digging into the polls reveals the signs that make me wonder if my second scenario - Obama winning huge - may bear out in time. The numbers behind the numbers suggest that Palin has (rightly) become a massive liability to McCain's prospects. Obama has become the more trusted person to lead in a time of crisis, is more trusted on the economy, and is almost at parity with McCain on the question of who would be the best in terms of foreign policy.

But increasingly, regardless of what the polls say, the game now becomes one of strategy. The Republicans have a vaunted voter-identification and turnout effort. It is largely grass-roots and religious folks play a big part in generating turnout in critical areas of the country. It's what puts Ohio and Florida, and even Pennsylvania, in play for the GOP. In the past, the Democrats have had a difficult time competing with this infrastructure. Now, Obama's campaign believes they can. Some people say it's untested, but I disagree. In the course of the primaries, Obama had some 50 trial runs at inspiring turnout...he was quite successful overall. Some anecdotal evidence suggests the GOP ground game isn't there this year, but I can't say for sure that it is.

If the GOP ground game has collapsed, then the electoral college map will look like this. You can call it my best scenario:



This doesn't depend on Obama's performance. This is all about the GOP's turnout at this point. I think there is so much enthusiasm for Obama that it does threaten to overwhelm the GOP in most states where Obama is remotely competitive. On the other hand, I think the GOP is still a sleeping giant. We are still a center-right nation, and the infrastructure that has served Republicans so well in the last two elections is still in place. The question is can they mobilize this time around? It's a fair question given the state of affairs in our country...but I'm not willing to count the GOP out just yet. So my map below stands as my best guess for the outcome of this race, with the following caveat: if the GOP really falls flat, which is definitely possible, we'll see an outcome like the one above.