As the Dear Leader Turns

I dispute the notion that Kim Jong-il is crazy. If he truly was unhinged, he would have been defenestrated long ago. I read a book about the Kim dynasty called "Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader." The author uses a lot of source material to suggest that while Kim is the undisputed dictator of North Korea, he speaks on behalf of a large extended family whose very wellbeing depends on the DPRK's survival. The legitimacy of the regime - you know, the notion of juche, stalinism, and confucian spirituality - is really a house of cards, and the author suggests that the small elite in the DPRK knows that much. But their survival and their wealth - and there is a lot of it - depends on keeping the regime as opaque and mysterious as they possibly can.

Imagine - a nation where travel is restricted, opportunities are foreclosed, concentration camps are maintained, education is limited, and starvation and famine are permitted - all because a few thousand people want to live in quiet luxury!

The book suggests that Kim's leadership is attenuated by the demands of this family, who propagate his legitimacy throughout the nation. He in turn funnels signifcant assets, resources, and opportunities to them. It seems to be a very durable, mutually agreed-upon relationship.

Whether or not the book is right, I have a hard time dismissing Kim as a power-mad dandy. He has played regional and world powers too effectively to be dismissed outright. He's an inveterate liar (and an expert, having perfected the craft since the day he was born), a brinksman, and ultimately, a survivor. He is not an ideologue - socialism in the DPRK gave way long ago to kelptocracy and opportunistic capitalism, at least for the elite, while the masses are mired in a subsistence economy while they continue to strive for the "workers paradise" they were indoctrinated to believe in.

The Koreas at night. Electricity in the DPRK is turned off at 9:00 pm, except for Pyongyang.

Kim knows that the power vacuum that would form in his absence would be too much for South Korea and China to bear. He also knows that China does not American troops on its border. He also knows how to play the mutual grievances between China, Japan, and Korea, to hamstring and neutralize the six-party talks. He certainly knows that Russia, deep down in her soul, will never sublimate herself to the Americans in a foreign policy crisis. And so our "six-party" strategy plays right into his strategy of dissembling and biding time.

Sure, the DPRK speaks well of a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula (as indeed Iran talks about an atomic bomb being un-Islamic...but you and I know that Iran is going to set up a system whereby they are, as they say, only a screwdriver away from a bomb) but I think this is a ploy. The DPRK will be able to say in a few years' time the distrust between the parties requires them to maintain a nuclear arsenal in self defense. Because of his proven nuclear arsenal, Kim will be able to decommission some of his army and cry "victory!" as the troops return home to engage in more productive economic activities, namely the provision of cheap labor for other Asian economies.

So in ten years, one of two things will happen: the regime will be deposed, and it will be a total mess; or the DPRK will be building more cheap cars for China and South Korea. The Kim dynasty will reap the whirlwind, while the masses will receive piecemeal improvements to their lives, so they can be comforted in their heartfelt belief that workers paradise is slowly, but surely being realized.